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Thread: LaForet: Dedicated Cameras are Coming to an End for all but PROS

  1. #1

    LaForet: Dedicated Cameras are Coming to an End for all but PROS

    I am sharing this on every photo forum I am a member of as we are either working or hobbyist photographer who have probably bought a mirrorless/SLR camera. I find it a fun topic to talk about, assuming you aren't selling these still cameras.


    Vincent LaForet was the first to promote the coming of HD video onto SLRs making his thoughts on the ongoing decline of still cameras have weight.


    Without further adieu read this blog post below.


    http://blog.vincentlaforet.com/2015/...-all-but-pros/


    Note to Vincent: Get someone to proof read for you. ;)


    This video below expounds LaForet's thoughts with some rounded numbers


    http://youtu.be/bfCJDIf-NeA


    Here are some more precise numbers to supplement the blog and video.


    http://lensvid.com/wp-content/upload...00-ver-2-0.jpg


    Source: http://lensvid.com/gear/lensvid-excl...ustry-in-2013/


    Production, Shipment of Digital Still Cameras in 2014


    42.8 million - still cameras covering point & shoots, mirrorless and SLRs
    - 29.28 million point & shoots
    - 3.17 million mirrorless
    - 10.32 million SLRs


    Production, Shipment of Digital Still Cameras in 2013


    61.0 million - still cameras covering point & shoots, mirrorless and SLRs
    - 44.19 million point & shoots
    - 3.18 million mirrorless
    - 13.64 million SLRs


    Production, Shipment of Interchangeable Lenses in 2014


    22.3 million lenses covering crop & full frame
    - 5.7 million full frame lenses
    - 16.6 million crop lenses


    Production, Shipment of Interchangeable Lenses in 2013


    25.88 million22.3 million lenses covering crop & full frame
    - 6.01 million full frame lenses
    - 19.87 million crop lenses


    vs


    1.3 billion smartphones shipped in 2014


    Of which 1 billion are Android and 193 million are iPhones


    Makes me wish I used all the money I spent on Canon & Apple gear went into Apple stock at $7.00/share in 2002.


    What makes the smartphone market so big is that a sizeable chunk of smartphone users are on contract so they get upgraded phones every 12, 24 or 36 months. These upgrades are "pushed" on them rather than us working/hobbyist photographers "pulling" these upgrades with our still cameras.


    I also think just like the PC shipping figures still cameras are either abandoned in favor of smartphones/tablets or upgraded based on need (the subject they're photographing needs XYZ feature or the camera broken down and isn't worth repairing).


    Less than 1% of those buying a still camera of any sort buys a SLR. The 1% of the 1% of SLR buyers buys a double grip pro body like a Canon 1D X or Nikon D4S.


    It puts into perspective where/who we are today. Doesn't it?


    With this in mind do you find yourself thinking perhaps the next upgrade you will skip all together?
    Visit my Flickr, Facebook & 500px and see my photos.

  2. #2
    Administrator Aloicious's Avatar
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    interesting topic, I just woke up so I'll need to read up some of those links once I finish up a few things.
    -Justin

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    My PhotographyWild Blog

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    Yeah it is an interesting topic. Camera phones have come along way tho and for most people take a good enough picture, let's face it they aren't pro photographer or even have a desire to do it as a hobby. The other thing is its light and very compact and you always have it with you. Is at fun or take as good of an image? Heck no but there are still some advantages for every day quick pic stuff.
    Olympus E-620 borrowed

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    Administrator Aloicious's Avatar
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    here's my thoughts on the decline, phones and other 'convenient' cameras will continue to take a chunk of the market share, however I've read some blogs and posts and stuff in the past about how dslrs are going to die and such, and I don't think so. I think cell phones will continue to take market share away from the lowest end of the photography market, namely point & Shoots, and bottom tier DSLRs and such. like you mentioned Whipped, for the mass-public, who are not really into photography, these cell phone cameras are definitely 'good enough' and why carry around a P&S when it really doesn't offer much additional benefit.

    I don't see cell phones taking TOO much from the enthusiast and professional market though, there are a lot of people out there, like many of us, that a cell phone camera isn't "good enough"...There will continue to be a DSLR market (and advancement, perhaps to mirrorless DSLRs or something in the future), but as an art form, Photography isn't going to die, but sales and profit from it will decline. IMO the worst case scenario would be if the large camera companies begin limiting or even stopping their development which will slow advancement for those who are wanting it and push the advanced enthusiast into a much more niche market and only served by much smaller (and therefore more expensive) productions and companies (there will always be companies filling the niche product market even if the major brands completely stop producing photography products) which will continue to push those interested in learning photography away due to high cost, etc, and with a shrinking market, it'll only perpetuate the problem. However I think that's a worst case scenario, I think the DSLR market will continue to decline at least for a little bit, but cell phone cameras that are 'good enough' are still a relatively new thing, so the market is a bit volatile and once the equilibrium point between users who are satisfied with 'good enough' and users who want something more is reached, things will begin to even out as far as the business side of photography is concerned.

    at least that's my take on the subject.
    -Justin

    Bodies - D800E
    Lenses - Sigma 18-35 f1.8 DC | Zeiss 15mm f2.8 ZF.2 | Zeiss 21mm f2.8 ZF.2 | Sigma 35mm f1.4 Art | 105mm f2.5 AI-S | 70-200 f2.8G VRII | 200mm F4.0D Micro AF | 300mm f2.8 VRII

    My PhotographyWild Blog

    C&C is always welcome on the images I post.

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    Administrator Aloicious's Avatar
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    also, in response to your last question Dolina, I don't think these figures will affect my next upgrade too much unless the shrinking market pushes prices astronomically high or something, but I don't see that happening much more than standard inflation. I've typically upgraded my bodies as I see warranted or as new technology introduces features that I find useful. this is typically every other body introduction (example, I've got a D800E, I skipped the D810, but I am planning on upgrading to whatever the D810's successor is depending on what it's final specs end up being)
    -Justin

    Bodies - D800E
    Lenses - Sigma 18-35 f1.8 DC | Zeiss 15mm f2.8 ZF.2 | Zeiss 21mm f2.8 ZF.2 | Sigma 35mm f1.4 Art | 105mm f2.5 AI-S | 70-200 f2.8G VRII | 200mm F4.0D Micro AF | 300mm f2.8 VRII

    My PhotographyWild Blog

    C&C is always welcome on the images I post.
    Likes NEF.D90 liked this post

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    Don't you think there's been a steady decline tho just with the introduction of digital cameras in general? It seems there used to be an inkleys everywhere and now there's only one and they suck. Course I know a lot of what the did was developing film and prints and such but they did sell photography equipment. Seems there was at one time lots of shops around like that
    Olympus E-620 borrowed

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    Administrator Aloicious's Avatar
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    yes and no, the decline in physical brick and mortar stores doesn't really have anything to do with digital (other than the printing business, which to me is separate from the equipment retail business, although many places did both), it has more to do with the marketplace shift toward online sales which can typically offer better overall pricing.
    -Justin

    Bodies - D800E
    Lenses - Sigma 18-35 f1.8 DC | Zeiss 15mm f2.8 ZF.2 | Zeiss 21mm f2.8 ZF.2 | Sigma 35mm f1.4 Art | 105mm f2.5 AI-S | 70-200 f2.8G VRII | 200mm F4.0D Micro AF | 300mm f2.8 VRII

    My PhotographyWild Blog

    C&C is always welcome on the images I post.

  8. #8
    Actual shipments in 2014
    Forecasted shipments for 2015


    CIPA2015Forecast by alabang, on Flickr

    Point & shoots is the most affected in drop in sales.

    Interchangeable lenses and bodies the least affected.

    People on photo forums will still buy dedicated still cameras.

    People who dont will probably use what they have until it is too expensive to fix or just get a new smartphone.
    Visit my Flickr, Facebook & 500px and see my photos.
    Likes NEF.D90 liked this post

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    Super Moderator NEF.D90's Avatar
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    I feel like cameras in phones are really stealing the market when It comes to entry-level consumers.
    I talked to so many people at the flea market when I was selling my prints and about 10 of those people that stopped by want to tell me how they had a photo just like this on their phone. Lol.

    I just recently downloaded a new camera app on my galaxy s4.
    It's called camera360. And let me say wow, such an improvement over my stock camera. Maybe I'll post a thread about it.
    If your going to dream, Dream Big!

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    Please do I have a GS4 as well... For now
    Olympus E-620 borrowed

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